Simplicity...
When will it help us
All?





Thursday, November 26, 2009

In gambling, it's basic logic that no casino, sports betting agency or lottery allows for individuals to profit in the long run.

Unprofitable systems are achieved by making it such that if you have x amount of money and want to earn enough to get y amount of money, the greatest possible odds that you can get to win that by chance is x/y.

Let’s simplify that.

Taking an example from here, let's assume that there's a gambling house named Butterfly Tortoise Massage and Many Money House where there's a gambling system so simple that all you have to do is:

1. Bet an amount of money
2. Flip a coin
2a. If heads, you lose what you bet.
2b. If tails, you receive double of what you bet.

Looking back up at the words highlighted in red, this system is not profitable as the amount that you bet (x) and the amount that you potentially receive (y = 2x) conform to the ratio 1:2, meaning that overall you should break even.

Now consider this:

"The strategy had the gambler double his bet after every loss, so that the first win would recover all previous losses plus win a profit equal to the original stake."

The Martingale betting system works in that for every loss you make, you double the amount that you bet for your next bet, as shown in the following examples:

SCENARIO 1
1. You bet $1000. You win, giving you an overall profit of $1000.

SCENARIO 2
1. You bet $1000. You lose.
2. You now bet $2000. You lose.
3. You now bet $4000. You win the bet (winning $4000), giving you an overall profit of $1000, having lost $3000 and won $4000.

Although every single scenario will conclude in your winning $1000 (making it possible to win $1000 over and over again, ad infinitum), in reality this system is still governed by the rules of non-profitability: (quoting above) if you have x amount of money and want to earn enough to get y amount of money, the greatest possible odds that you can get to win that by chance is x/y.

This is due to one major constraint on your betting: the amount of money you have before you go broke. Assuming it takes you 10 losing bets to finally make a profit of $1000 on your 11th bid, you would have to be able to absorb a loss of $512000 in the first place.

(another minor constraint, of course, is finding a place that would allow you to place a single bet of $512000 in the first place. Fortunately Butterfly Tortoise Massage and Many Money House doesn't suffer from that problem.)

Consider the following:

SCENARIO
You have $3000. You want to earn another $1000 to get to a total of $4000.

The chance of you winning your first bet (and instantly reaching your target of $4000) is 50% - you have to flip tails on your first go.

The chance of you winning your second bet (and reaching your target of $4000) is 25% - you have to flip heads on your first go, then tails on your second.

The chance of you losing all your money (and preventing you from continuing) is 25% - you have to flip heads for both your first and second tries.

So the chance of you getting $4000 (y) from $3000 (x) is equal to 3000/4000, or x/y.




The most important thing to note is this: while Butterfly Tortoise Massage and Many Money House does not go below the ratio of x/y in terms of payouts, practically every other game of chance in the world does so, giving the house a guaranteed profit.

Let's consider the example of Caterpillar Turtle Massage and Less (but still much!) Money House, that charges a tax of $10 for every $1000 that you bet (which is not an unreasonable amount of money)

SCENARIO
1. You bet $1000, paying $10 tax. You lose.
2. You bet $2000, paying $20 tax. You lose.
3. You bet $4000, paying $40 tax. You lose.

...

4. Having lost many bets in a row, you keep doubling your bets until you bet $64000, paying $640 tax. You win the bet (winning $64000), giving you an overall profit of $1000, having lost $63000 and won $64000. The problem is, you've paid a total of $1270 in tax, meaning that overall despite your winning $1000, you've still made a loss of $270.

I'm not sure what the moral of the story is.



3:07 PM



I'm not dead!



Relient K - Forgiven

Oh yes, I know this tension that you speak of
We're in the palm of a hand making a fist
It'd be best for one of us to speak up
But we prefer to pretend it does not exist

And you can't see past the blood on my hands
To see that you've been aptly damned
To fail and fail again

Cause we're all guilty of the same things
We think the thoughts whether or not we see them through
And I know that I have been forgiven
And I just hope you can forgive me too

So don't you dare blame me for
Prying open the door
That's unleashed the bitterness
That's here in the midst of this
Sometimes we live for no one but ourselves

And what we've been striving for
Has turned into nothing more
Than bodies limp on the floor
Victims of falling short
We kiss goodbye the cheek of our true love

11:29 AM

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Ne-Yo - Mad

She's starin' at me
I'm sittin' wonderin' what she's thinkin'
Nobody's talkin' 'cause talkin' just turns into screamin'
And now it's I'm yellin' over her, she yellin' over me
All that that means is neither of us is listening

And what's even worse?
That we don't even remember why we're fighting
So both of us are mad for

Nothing, fighting for
Nothin', crying for
Nothing, whoa
But we won't let it go for

Nothing, no not for
Nothing, this should be
Nothing to a love like what we got

Oh baby, I know sometimes it gonna rain
But baby, can we make up now?
'Cause I can't sleep through the pain
Can't sleep through the pain

Girl, I don't wanna go to bed mad at you
And I don't want you to go to bed mad at me
No, I don't wanna go to bed mad at you
And I don't want you to go to bed mad at me
Oh no no no

And it gets me upset
Girl when you're constantly accusing
Askin' questions like you already know
We're fighting this war
Baby when both of us are losing
This ain't the way that love is supposed to go

Whoa, what happened to workin' it out?
We've fall into this place
Where you ain't backin' down and I ain't backin' down
So what the hell do we do now?
It's all for

Nothing, fighting for
Nothing, crying for
Nothing, whoa
But we won't let it go for

Nothing, no not for
Nothing, this should be
Nothing to a love like what we got

Oh baby, I know sometimes it's gonna rain
But baby, can we make up now?
'Cause I can't sleep through the pain
Can't sleep through the pain

Girl, I don't wanna go to bed mad at you
And I don't want you to go to bed mad at me
No, I don't wanna go to bed mad at you
And I don't want you to go to bed mad at me
Oh no no no

Oh, baby this love ain't gonna be perfect
Perfect, perfect, oh oh
And just how good it's gonna be
We can fuss and we can fight
Long as everything's all right between us
Before we go to sleep
Baby, we're gonna be happy, oh

Baby, I know sometimes it's gonna rain
But baby, can we make up now?
'Cause I can't sleep through the pain
Can't sleep through the pain

Girl, I don't wanna go to bed mad at you
And I don't want you to go to bed mad at me
No, I don't wanna go to bed mad at you
And I don't want you to go to bed mad at me
Oh no no no

11:02 PM

Sunday, October 11, 2009

HELLO GOD/readers/myself (maybe I'm the only one ever reading this blog), THIS IS A BLOG POST. (btw why were promos so hard?)







For the rest of us, here's something I wrote some time ago. I hope it's interesting.



Ghost

Question One.

How do we know how to count to a hundred, a thousand, to ten thousand?

Answer One.

Most probably we’ve all learnt to count by understanding how each number follows another, allowing us to count up indefinitely to arbitrarily large numbers, beginning and ending at any point.

Answer Two.

Perhaps we are just recalling our past experiences when we count – perhaps we’ve actually experienced counting up one by one the numbers starting from one, and only just forgotten.

Question Two.

Why are children especially afraid of night and the dark?

Answer One.

Most probably it’s merely a childhood fear having the same origins as the fear of tigers, or doctors; although here the fear is decidedly more irrational seeing that a tiger can injure you rather severely, but the dark cannot.

Answer Two.

Perhaps there is something very much to fear about the dark, and we’ve only just forgotten.





Monday

“Daddy?”

I turn around slowly in the vague direction of the voice – it’s eight in the morning and my eyes are still full of sleep. In fact my entire face is invaded by sleepiness and it’s all I can do to try to drive it out of my head. Slowly I make out the form of my daughter standing by the kitchen door.

“Yes Sarah?”

“Can I ask you something?”

“Sure, what is it?”

“What does funny mean?”

I pause a moment.

Funny, dear? Is it a word you heard at school?”

“Sort of.”

“Well, I guess something funny is something that makes you laugh. I’m actually surprised you didn’t know that word already.”

Sarah scrunches her face into something very much like a four-year-old frown. Four years going on five, actually. It’s her birthday in a month.

“Really?”

“Well, why don’t you tell me what you think the word means?”

Sarah reaches her arm into her nearby bag, pulls out a book, thumbs.

“Here. Look, it’s on this page.”

I look down at the book, pressing my face close to the page in an attempt to see without glasses. I can just distinguish the words Feeling funny, Tom clutched his stomach and ran to the bathroom.

“Oh. Funny. Here, funny means that there is something not normal. It could be strange, even scary.”

Sarah beams.

“Well, I saw a funny man yesterday night, Daddy.”

“Did you?”

“Yes, Daddy. When I was sleeping in my room I heard him open the cupboard door and climb out, so I said hello.”

I smile.

“That’s nice, Sarah. I hope you played nicely with him and shared your dolls and My Little Ponies.”

“Not really, Dad.”

“No?”

“When I said hello to him he didn’t say anything. And it was all dark, I could hardly see him. He just stood there, and then he climbed back into the cupboard and closed the door. I wanted to open it again and look for him but I couldn’t, it’s too high.”

“Oh. That’s too bad. Maybe you’ll see him again tonight, though. Then you can play with him before he goes back into the cupboard.”

Sarah nods.

“For now, though, we’re going to be late for school if we don’t hurry. There, here’re your cornflakes. Let’s get moving!”





Tuesday

“Daddy?”

“What’s up, dear?”

The caffeine in my morning coffee enters my bloodstream, slowly and methodically waking me up.

“I’m not scared.”

“Sure you’re not, dear. But what happened?”

“It’s Tuesday, see?”

“Uh huh.”

“And yesterday was Monday. When I told you about the funny man and asked you what funny means.”

“Uh huh.”

“And I’m not scared, not today or yesterday.”

“Don’t worry, I’m sure you’re not.”

“So last night when I went to sleep I was keeping a watch out on my cupboard, seeing if the funny man with no face would come back or not.”

I am fully awake now.

“With no face? You didn’t tell me about that.”

“I didn’t see his face until last night, when he got out of the cupboard and walked nearer to me.”

“And he had no face?”

Sarah’s voice trails, becoming softer and softer.

“He had a face, but it had no ears and noses and things.”

“And what happened after that?”

“Nothing, Daddy.”

“Nothing?”

“He just got back into the cupboard and shut the door. That’s all that I saw.”

“Well, if it happens again, tell me, okay?”

“I’m not scared.”

“It’s okay; just tell me if anything happens tonight, all right?”

“I’m okay.”

Sarah turns and walks into the bathroom, and as she walks I can just see the slightest of shivers.

In fact the kitchen grows terribly cold all of a sudden.





Wednesday

“Daddy.”

“Sarah?”

“I’m scared.”

She grasps my arm till the white of her knuckles matches the red of my arm, looking at the floor and chanting all the while like a Gregorian monk.

“I’m scared. I’m scared.”

“Sarah?”

“I’m scared. I’m scared of the funny man with no face.”

She clutches my arm, swaying forwards and backwards in tandem with the plopplopplop sound of the droplets from her soaked pajamas splashing onto the ground.





Night

As far as I’m concerned Sarah’s tiny bed isn’t made for two, but lying beside her is the only thing I can do to help her fall asleep.

“Daddy?”

“Yes?”

“Good night.”

“Good night, dear. Now try to get some sleep, all right?”

“Okay.”

“If you get any nightmares again, just nudge me. I’m right here beside you.”

“Okay.”

“Now, good night.”

“Good night, Daddy.”

I curl my body so my legs don’t stick out of the bed, and try to get a good night myself.





Day

I wake up to an unfamiliar (but definitely not unexplainable) cramp in my left thigh and sun in my eyes.

“Sarah, where are my glasses?”

“Sarah?”

“Sarah?”

Sarah emerges from underneath the sheets, squinting.

“Uh?”

“Do you know where my glasses are, dear?”

“I think they’re in the cupboard.”

“In the cupboard?”

“That one. The one with the funny –”

I shoot Sarah a glance as I reach over to the cupboard, open the door and retrieve my glasses which are tucked into a corner for some reason.

“Sarah, you know that there isn’t any man living in there, funny or not. The cupboard is empty except for your clothes, isn’t it? Look.”

Sarah stares at the sheets.

“But the man was there last night.”

“Last night? But you didn’t tell me a thing. I told you to nudge me if you were scared, or if you saw anything.”

“I didn’t see him.”

“Then that’s settled then.”

“I didn’t see him, but I heard him. I closed my eyes and hid under the covers once I heard the cupboard door opening, I didn’t want to see a thing.”

“Maybe it was just your imagination, dear. I know –”

“And then I wanted to wake you up but then there was nothing there when I nudged you – you were already out of the bed and I could hear you walking towards the cupboard.”

“Look, Sarah. It’s Thursday today, I’ll make an appointment for us to see Doctor Richard tomorrow. I’m sure he’ll be able to help us out.”

“Daddy!”

“Don’t worry, Sarah. There’s nothing in the cupboard. I promise.”

“Please, Daddy.”

Her face is wet and red.

“Just don’t play with my glasses next time, Sarah. I don’t want this to happen every time I sleep in your room.”

“Daddy, I didn’t hide your glasses. The cupboard door, it’s too high.”





Night

Amidst clouds of darkness I hear a scream so soft that it’s either coming from very far away, or very very deep within the earth.

I pretend it’s the former, and try to go back to sleep. The screams are slowly replaced by rolling hills and clouds, and then –

Strangely, I hear the same scream.

Half awake now, I stumble through near pitch-darkness to Sarah’s room, nearly falling over in the process. Inside I see my daughter quivering in the doorway, staring ghostly into the room.

“…Daddy?”

“I’m here, Sarah.”

“Help.”

She grabs onto my hand, trembling so hard I begin to shake myself.

“Don’t worry, Sarah, I’m here.”

Walking into the room, I gauge in the darkness the approximate position of the accursed cupboard and throw open the door with my free hand.

The door opens –

And instantly my neck twists to the left, searching for the source of the sudden, sharp pain in my left hand, and I see my fingers wedged between the teeth of a girl with a face so white it’s nearly clear.


10:52 PM

Friday, October 02, 2009

I'm looking for Ulysses by James Joyce. I read bits and pieces of it here and it's seriously awesome. Whoever thinks my writing is avant-garde/experimental/modernist should seriously take a look at his writing.

James Joyce is officially my writing father in spirit now.

(insert bad joke about "study leave" here)

12:00 PM

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Westlife - Against All Odds

How can I just let you walk away
Just let you leave without a trace
When I stand here taking
Every breath with you ohh
You're the only one
Who really knew me at all

How can you just walk away from me
When all I can do is watch you leave
'Cause we've shared the laughter and the pain
And even shared the tears
You're the only one
Who really knew me at all

So take a look at me now
'Cause there's just an empty space
There's nothing left here to remind me
Just the memory of your face
So take a look at me now
'Cause there's just an empty space
And you coming back to me, is against the odds
And that's what I've got to face

I wish I could just make you turn around
Turn around and see me cry
There's so much I need to say to you
So many reasons why
You're the only one
Who really knew me at all

So take a look at me now
'Cause there's just an empty space
There's nothing left here to remind me
Just the memory of your face
So Take a look at me now
Cause there's just an empty space
But to wait for you is
All I can do
And that's what I've got to face.
Take a good look at me now
'Cause l'll still be standing (standing here)
And you coming back to me is against all odds
That's the chance I've got to take

10:14 PM

Friday, September 18, 2009

Here

Is the place
Where the only one that laughs is myself
Where the only face is the man in the mirror
Where the only way I can smile
Is to push more nicotine into the already drugged mind.

9:24 PM

Thursday, September 10, 2009

I loved this quote from the first season of House. It just manages to describe the entirety of life, really.


"I know that limp. I know the empty ring finger. And that obsessive nature of yours, that’s a big secret. You don’t risk jail and your career just to save somebody who doesn’t want to be saved unless you got something, anything, one thing. The reason normal people got wives and kids and hobbies, whatever. That’s because they don’t got that one thing that hits them that hard and that true. I got music, you got this. The thing you think about all the time, the thing that keeps you south of normal. Yeah, makes us great, makes us the best. All we miss out on is everything else. No woman waiting at home after work with the drink and the kiss, that ain’t gonna happen for us."

11:00 PM